What is Estimated action rate?
Estimated action rate is Meta's prediction of the probability that showing a particular ad to a particular person leads to the outcome the advertiser chose, such as a purchase or a lead. It is one of the three factors in an ad's total value in the Meta ad auction, alongside the bid and ad quality. Meta multiplies the bid per action by the estimated action rate to work out what one impression is worth to the advertiser.
Machine learning models produce the estimate from the person's activity on and off Meta's apps, the content of the ad, the time of day and past interactions between people and ads. Ads Manager does not show it as a number. The engagement rate and conversion rate rankings in ad relevance diagnostics are the closest view.
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Sources
- 1.Estimated action rates estimate the probability that showing an ad to a person leads to the advertiser's desired outcome. Meta Business Help Centre, About ad auctions. Checked 14 October 2026.
- 2.Machine learning models predict the estimated action rate from behaviour on and off Facebook, ad content, time of day and interactions between people and ads. Meta for Business, Good Questions, Real Answers: How Does Facebook Use Machine Learning to Deliver Ads?. Checked 14 October 2026.
- 3.Meta calculates bid per impression as bid per estimated action multiplied by estimated action rate. Meta Business Help Centre, About bid cap. Checked 14 October 2026.